From the category archives:

interest rates

Top High-Yield Savings Accounts: Interest Rates And Some Thoughts

by golbguru on September 21, 2007

After the recent cut in the Federal Funds Rate, it is anticipated that most high yield savings accounts will follow suit and decrease the interest rates offered on deposits. In fact, a couple of fellow bloggers reported yesterday that ING Direct has already reduced it’s savings account interest rate from 4.50% (yawn) to 4.30% (longer yawn). It won’t be too long before other banks respond in a similar manner.

Although, ING’s 0.2% rate reduction can hardly be called as “significant”, for people who are used to earning interest at a higher rate, such a drop causes some discomfort. Consequently, they start looking around for other accounts that are offering better rates.

If you belong to such a group, here are some options you might want to consider.

The table below lists banks that are offering an interest rate (APY) of 5.00% or more on their respective online savings accounts as of 09/25/2007 (links are for information only - no referral links):

[TABLE=6]

[Click on the column headings to sort in ascending or descending order]

The table has been compiled according to the following guidelines:

  • All rates are regular, NOT introductory.
  • Both, money market accounts (MMA) and savings accounts are considered.
  • Accounts which offer tiered rates on deposits are NOT included [for example, accounts that offer 0% APY on balances below $5000 and 5% APY on balances above $5000 are not included]. The only exception is Presidential Online Bank which is offering the 5.25% APY for balances below $35,000.
  • Accounts which charge monthly maintenance fees [based on average daily balance requirements] are NOT included. That means, none of the above banks carry a minimum balance requirement (may be $1 in some cases, but that shouldn’t be a problem).
  • All accounts are FDIC insured.
  • So basically, these are the top interest bearing banking accounts with low potential for surprises. Of course, you still have to read (and understand) the fine print before you sign anything.

Notes: It is very likely (but not guaranteed) that the rates in the above table will go down in the near future. However, keep the list handy - in all probability, even after a drop in the interest rates across the board, the top players will still be offering better interest rates than the rest of the herd.

Which type of accounts are better? Money market accounts or savings accounts?

Earlier, I wrote about the factors I would consider for choosing an online savings account. From the point of view of these factors, both money market accounts and savings accounts offer a similar deal. Both are FDIC insured and generally offer similar transaction facilities. However, typically, money market accounts tend to be tiered - different interest rates are offered on different amounts of deposits, unlike most savings accounts. Also, money market accounts tend to carry more fees (maintenance, minimum balance, etc.) than simple savings accounts. So watch out.

However, the two money market accounts that I included in the above table don’t have tiered structure (at present), and there are no maintenance fees involved. So, for all practical purposes, they are as good as the other savings accounts. However, keep in mind that these things are not set in stone and banks may change terms and conditions after you sign up for an account.

Other thoughts on the subject

  • Take it easy: In my opinion, there is no need to go all hyper on trying to switch bank accounts just because your bank dropped interest rates on savings by 0.2%. It helps to have a sense of proportion here. Just ask yourself: how much is this interest rate drop going to cost me?

Remember, for each 0.1% drop, you stand to lose $1 in interest per year on every $1000 you have in your savings account - before considering taxes. If you consider a 25% tax rate on the interest earned, then each 0.1% drop causes a $0.75 loss in interest on every $1000.

Following the above numbers (which I hope are correct - I just did it on the fly, so let me know if the math seems off), we can easily estimate (for example) that for the recent case of ING Direct’s interest rate cut (0.2%), a person who has $10,000 with ING will stand to lose about $15 a year in interest earnings.

At this point, it’s worth looking into the reasons why you have been doing business with your current bank. Sometimes, interest rate is not the only reason why people choose different banks. If those reasons aren’t worth $15 a year (or whatever loss you are looking at), sure go ahead and get a new account at different bank.

  • Considering a CD? Certificate of Deposit (CD - also known as “Term Deposit” or “Fixed Deposit”) will be an area where people will tend to look into to lock in “good” rates, especially after the recent rate cut. However, make sure you do your homework well with CD rates and shop around. As of now, I don’t see any point in buying a long term CD that pays a much lower interest rate than some top savings account in the market. For example, take a look at ING Direct’s CD rates:

ING Direct CD Rates

Personally, I would never consider these CDs if I am getting a better rate and more liquidity with a savings account with another bank.

Also, keep in mind that banks that give top rates for high yield savings accounts do not necessarily give top rates for CDs. Again, remember to shop around before deciding on switching to CDs with your current bank.

My experience with some of the banks

  • My first online savings account was with ING Direct. Although, I hardly keep anything in it now-a-days, ING has always given me a “feel good” vibe. I have contacted their customer service on multiple occasions for various reasons and had a good experience each time. Plus, their multiple sub-accounts feature is just awesome - perfect for budgeting purposes. It’s a pity they don’t offer top interest rates anymore.
  • Emigrant Direct is better now (as compared to their earlier interface), but it doesn’t appear as “appealing” as ING even though it has consistently offered better rates than ING. I have an account here, but it’s largely dormant.
  • HSBC Direct is my central hub at present. In terms of functionality, and security, I am most comfortable with this account. There is no restriction on how many external accounts you can connect to HSBC’s account (and hence it can act a hub) - makes it easier to organize other accounts. Also, you can set up automatic weekly/monthly transfers to/from multiple accounts for a given period of time. The account also comes with an ATM card - awesome feature for emergencies. Login procedures suck, but I can live with that.
  • iGobanking is the latest addition to our army of bank accounts. Account opening procedure was a breeze, and customer service was very helpful. However, I do have to point out that their online help documentation sucks - it’s just not adequate enough (hint: try finding their routing number). However, A 5.30% APY makes up for that.

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Interest Rates For Dummies

by golbguru on September 7, 2007

Let’s talk a little bit about short term interest rates in a layman’s language. The US Federal Reserve adjusts the short term interest rates according to market conditions. The most *popular* of these rates is the Federal Funds Rate - that’s the one you usually hear about on websites, TVs, and newspapers. This rate determines the interest that a bank pays in order to borrow money from another bank. If the Federal Funds rate goes down, banks can borrow the money (from each other) at a lower cost - and that eventually translates into lower borrowing costs for the customers (on various loans, credit cards, etc.,). If the rate goes up, the cost for borrowing money rises - for the banks and eventually for the customers.

Depending on how the economy is performing, the Federal Reserve attempts to adjust (raise or lower) the interest rate to keep it running in an optimal condition. This leads to sort of a interest cycle [it's more like a feedback control loop] which can be explained as below:

short term interest rate cycle

Here is a symbolic representation of the cycle:

interest rate cycle symbolic

Use this key to understand the above symbolic interest rate cycle:

worried ben bernanke Bernanke worried happy ben bernanke Bernanke happy… yeah right!
angry jim cramer Cramer angry happy jim cramer Cramer normal happy

[Watch this video if you are still confused]

Where are we now in the interest rate cycle?

Here is an excerpt from a CBS News article that succinctly describes the current situation.

The fear is that if credit continues to become harder for people and businesses to get, spending and investment will be crimped. That could hurt overall economic growth. In a worst-case scenario, the country could slide into a recession. Credit is the economy’s life blood. It allows people to finance big-ticket purchases such as homes and cars and can help businesses bankroll expansions and other things that can boost hiring …

… With squeezed homeowners finding it difficult to make their mortgage payments or pay them in a timely fashion, foreclosures and delinquencies are soaring and are expected to get worse. Lenders have been forced out of business, and hedge funds and other big investors in subprime mortgage securities also have taken a big financial hit.

This is pretty much indicative of the fact that we are heading towards a cut in the short term interest rates in the near future. In the present scenario, if this doesn’t happen soon, people are going to worried about recession.

This probably means that the market will have a greater tendency to go down in the coming days if there are no indications of reduction in the interest rates (or if there is no improvement in the housing market situation - which is not going to happen anytime soon, so let’s watch the interest rates instead). I guess we are seeing signs of it already - today’s headline on MarketWatch.com:

Dow industrials plunge 200 as investors give in to fear of recession.

I think i will prepare to buy some more ETFs today and in days to come.

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How Mad Can Jim Cramer Get?

by golbguru on August 7, 2007

For those who missed the action, here is a piece of it.
He is either faking it (not uncommon on American television) or he is pretty near to having a heart attack.

[youtube]rOVXh4xM-Ww[/youtube]

We should probably put Jim Cramer, Bill Poole, and Ben Bernanke on The Jerry Springer Show someday.

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How Long Till You Double Your Money - A Lookup Table

by golbguru on March 26, 2007

Long time back, I wrote a post on the calculations behind the rule of 72 with regards to estimating the time it takes to double your initial investment. The focus of that post was to understand exactly how the rule of 72 works and whether it is accurate for all rates of return (ROR). I did not explicitly show the answer to question “how long will it take to double your money at a given rate of return?”. That’s what I will do in this post by giving you a lookup table…just look up the rate of return/interest on your investment and see how many years it will take to double the initial amount (without any additional contributions to the initial investments). Of course, you could use the rule of 72 as a rough estimate..but the table below is far more accurate, and I wanted to do this in spite of the rule of thumb. :)

To get this lookup table, I have used this relation between time and rate of return (read here for details on how this formula is derived from compound interest formula):

rate of return calculation

In this formula, t is the time in years and r is the rate of return (rate of interest) in decimal form (5.10% => 0.051). Since I have assumed that the frequency of compounding is annual, r becomes analogous to APY if you are considering a savings account (or a CD). Graphically, this is what the formula tells us about how much time it will take to double the initial investment:

rate of return and time to double your initial investment graph

Here is the corresponding lookup table (rounded to the nearest number of months):

time to double your money

Another quick and crude way to estimate the time is to “double rate and half time”- meaning, if you double your rate of return (interest rate), it will take half as much time to double your money. For example, at 1% interest rate it takes about 70 years to double your initial investment, so at twice the interest rate (2%) it will take about 70/2 = 35 years; and if you double it once more (4%) it will take about 35/2 = 17.5 years.

I should point it out (although mathematically it is very obvious) that the graphical representation is very instructive. A rise of rate of return from 1% to 4% (a difference of 3%) has a drastic effect on reducing the time (from about 70 years to about 17.5 years), however, a rise from 17% to 20% (again a difference of 3%) reduces the time from 4 years and 5 months to just 3 years and 10 months. Instinctively, I think the risk increases much more rapidly in going from 17% to 20% than in going from 1% to 4%. I am almost tempted to overlap the above graph with some kind of risk curve (towards pointing out some sort of a *comfort zone*), but I was not able to find enough information on risk-return relationship. I will appreciate any input in this matter.

I am also trying to generate a similar (but more useful) lookup table that will incorporate regular additional investments on top of the initial principal amount….that would prove to be an useful tool to convince some people to save money..as in “look…saving just $X.XX per month will double your money is Y.YY years!:)

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Deconstructing My Credit Score After 0% APR Credit Card Arbitrage

by golbguru on March 13, 2007

I mentioned in an earlier post that, about six months ago, I involved myself in some 0% APR credit card arbitrage. Here, I will document a few things about my current credit score (as compared to my score before the arbitrage), that may interest some of you. If you don’t know what I am talking about, and/or if you haven’t heard about “0% APR credit card arbitrage” or “0% APR balance transfers” before, you must read this primer: How to Make Money from 0% APR Balance Transfers @ My Money Blog.

Before you start drawing conclusions from the numbers and charts below, here are some background facts about my credit that warrant consideration:

  • Ratio of credit card balances to available credit limit (credit utilization) before arbitrage: ~ 2%
  • Credit utilization after arbitrage: 23%
  • Length of my credit history: 5 years
  • Cards used in 0% APR arbitrage: 2
  • Number of open credit cards on record: 9 (click here to read about how I manage them)
  • Credit score before 0% APR arbitrage: 771 (click here to read more about this). This score was based on 9 open credit card accounts, but the 0% APR balance was not yet reflected in the score…so essentially, it gives a good reference for comparison.

Current credit score

current credit score

transunion%20credit%20score apr

This score may not be reflecting the worst situation after the arbitrage. Right after I availed the 0% APR offers, I was using about 26% of the available credit. The credit score must have been lower at that time. Since then, I have made a few minimum payments towards both the cards, which must have improved my score a bit. Based on the situation, it is fair to say that almost the entire drop in the score can be attributed to the increase in credit utilization (from 2% to 23%). Anyways, 737 is not too bad. :)

What does this credit score mean to me?

Here is a table that myFICO drew for me.

credit score interest rates

Obviously, lower FICO scores will mean higher interest rates (in most cases). But, at present, this is OK for me because I am not looking at any big loans in the near future. However, for someone who is looking for a 30 year mortgage, this drop in the credit score may make a huge difference. For example, if you get a 30 year, $200,000 mortgage at 5.99% instead of 5.77% , you will end up paying about $10,000 more (over a period of 30 years) than what you would have paid if your interest rate was 5.77%. So be careful about the timing of your arbitrage if you are looking to borrow large amounts soon. As a rule of thumb, I would suggest a period of at least 2 years of “no credit card balances” before you go in for borrowing something big.

What may have affected my score?

The score report mentions these as negative factors towards my credit score.

The proportion of balances to credit limits (high credit) on your revolving accounts is 23%. The average proportion of balances to credit limits (high credit) on revolving/charge accounts carried by U.S. consumers is around 36%.

According to your credit profile, you have 4 accounts where your balances last reported are greater than $0. On average, U.S consumers carry balances on approximately 4 of their credit accounts at a given time.

Of the 4 accounts, 2 were carrying the 0% APR balances and the other 2 carried a purchase balance at the instant of time that my credit report was pulled up for score calculation. Eventually, as I keep paying off the borrowed *free money*, both these factors will change for good and improve my score.

What does this score mean to lenders?

For lenders, here is how the FICO score relates to the risk of lending money to me.

credit score and risk

Seems like I am not that bad after all, although I have jumped from a 2% risk level to a 5% risk level in the process of utilizing the 0% APR balance transfer offers.

The mathematically curious/observant/astute will appreciate the fact that this chart almost follows a sigmoid function (I used this function earlier in this post). For others, it will be sufficient to say that if your credit score is very high or very low, a change in your credit score will have smaller effects on how lenders perceive the risks associated with your credit. When I say “smaller”, I am comparing it with a situation in which you credit score is *medium* (say between 500 and 700). People with credit scores around this range should be extremely cautious of things (including 0% APR credit card arbitrages) that may damage their scores. For example, I might be digging a ditch for myself if I indulge in another big 0% APR arbitrage transaction at this point of time - when my score is 737 (most likely that will throw me in the 14% risk group)

So that’s about it. In conclusion, I am pretty much OK with the changes that the 0% APR arbitrage has caused to my credit (as compared to the free money that I am earning with the borrowed amounts). This sort of encourages me to do something similar this year too. Although, I would wait till my score bumps up a little bit (comes near 770 again).

Before I conclude this post, I would like to offer a word of caution here if you try to compare your situation with some of the data presented in this post. The numbers above give a fair idea of what’s happening to one’s credit situation, and yet they are just a little more than *handwaving*. Mortgage rates (or any other loan rates) depend on a lot of other factors, in addition to credit scores, so keep that in your mind before jumping to conclusions.

Feel free to drop a line or two about any interesting observations or perceptions (either from the above writeup or from anywhere else) that you may have about 0% APR arbitrage issues.

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ING Direct Increases Savings Rate To 4.50%

by golbguru on November 29, 2006

ING Direct has announced an increase in the interest rate for its Orange Savings Account from 4.40% (APY) to 4.50%(APY). Saw this ad on their website today.

ingdirect

While the rate increase is not that exciting, I am hoping that this rate increase signals an increasing trend. A few years ago, when I opened my ING Direct account, it was offering the highest rate in the market and was aptly called the “leader”. Now, at least 30 banks offer more than what ING has to offer. At this rate it should be aptly called as the “lagger”. I really love ING for how they make things simple, but this is not helping!
Click here to check out what other banks are offering. Click on the “Search By 100 Highest Yields” option.

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