From the monthly archives:

October 2007

Things You Should Know About Percentage Traps

by golbguru on October 31, 2007

percentage trapsThe issue of percentages comes up almost every time we talk about any kind of numerical data. This is especially true in the investment world where people generally tend to talk in terms of percentage gains and losses - rather than the absolute values. That’s simply because it’s easier to interpret financial changes on a common scale of 100. However, there are certain pitfalls that one should be aware of when dealing with percentage values. Here’s a quick (and elementary) look at some of these traps.

Absence of a time frame

When it comes to investments, simply stating percentage gain/loss is not nearly enough. There is something else that MUST go along with the percentage data: it is the duration or time frame. Without the time frame, most financial percentage figures are effectively meaningless. For example, simply saying “Get a 100% return on your investment” doesn’t make any sense -100% return in how much time? 69 years 8 months (corresponding to 1% annual return)? or 3 years 10 months (corresponding to 20% annual return)?

So, whenever you judge the performance of a stock (or compare two stocks), make sure that you are aware of the time frame before you start comprehending numbers like “300% increase”! :) *cough* penny stocks emails *cough*

Arithmetic mean against geometric mean

Let’s consider this statement “Our picks have yielded 25% average annual returns over the past two years“. Sounds genuine - after all it mentions the time frame clearly. But let’s run through an example and see how this can be pretty deceptive.

  • Initial investment: $100
  • Value of investment after one year: $200 (100% return this year)
  • Value of investment after second year: $100 (50% loss this year)
  • Net gain/loss amount over the two years: $0

Now, when you calculate “average annual return” using arithmetic mean, you are basically taking the average of 100% and -50%, giving you a 25% average annual return. But obviously, since your net gain amount is $0 (or 0% over two years), the simple arithmetic mean is not really telling you the entire story in this case.

This is where geometric mean comes into picture. Click here to learn how to calculate geometric mean of a given set of percentage values (including negative percentages). If you apply the geometric mean for the above example, you will end up with 0% average rate of return - which is correct. This rate of return - calculated using geometric mean - is known as “annualized return“.

Another way to look at it is that geometric mean takes into account the effect of compounding, whereas arithmetic mean does not.

I won’t be surprised to find a lot of proponents of volatile stocks using arithmetic mean to make their case of higher returns. So make sure you are aware about the difference between “average return” or arithmetic mean and “annualized return” or geometric mean.

Irrelevant time frames

Sometimes, data is presented with reference to a time frame (perhaps with careful consideration to the geometric mean) but this time frame may be largely misleading. In fact, I still don’t have a good explanation of what makes an “appropriate” time frame, but I am working on it.

For example, let us consider the share price of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY) over various time spans, going backwards from yesterday:

  • 1 year return: 10.99%
  • 5 year return: 69.69% [11.16% annualized (geometric) return; average (arithmetic) annual return of 13.94%]
  • 10 year return: 62.83% [5% annualized (geometric) return, average (arithmetic) return of 6.28%]

Now, it is obvious that the annualized return differs if you choose different time windows over the history of the share. Depending on how you want to make your case, you could choose one of these time windows and go crazy with it. For example, you could pick the 5% annualized return for the last 10 years and blast the ETF’s performance, or you could pick the 11.16% return for the last 5 years and try to make a generalized statement like “… gives almost a 12% return on an average“.

Additionally, in all probability, people who want to downplay the 10 year performance will use geometric mean to make their case (geometric mean is always lower than the arithmetic mean), and people who want to glorify the 5-year performance, will use the arithmetic mean. :)

Readers should be wary of such pick-and-choose explanations. Try to find data that is most relevant to your investment time frame.

The disconnect between percentages and amounts

These types of examples are rarely seen in the investment world (I haven’t seen any), but are often observed in blog monetization circles. Here is an example:

My advertising income increased by 300%

Yeah right! It was 5 cents yesterday and today it’s 20 cents.

Obviously, in this case, the percentage value creates a greater boasting impact than the actual dollar value - so it might be used as a good marketing ploy to sell ideas/products.

It helps to have this scaling effect in your mind when you compare your income/net worth with others. For someone with $1,000,000 in hand, 10% means $100,000; whereas, for someone with $1,000 in hand, it’s just $100 (think in terms of buying power).

This becomes very obvious when you think in terms of percentage discounts on clearance products. What’s more attractive, a “50% off” sale on a $2 item you need or a “5% off” sale on a $100 item you need? :)

So, there you have it. Pay more attention to percentages in future. :)

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MP3 Players For Nine Year Olds? Whatever Happened To Simple, Inexpensive Fun?

by golbguru on October 29, 2007

This past week, a faculty member casually asked me about my recommendation for a MP3 player for her son… so I casually asked how old her son was. “He is nine years old” was the answer!! Man.. I never felt more outdated in my life… I still don’t have a MP3 player. :)

Here is another example I found on Amazon forums:

Question: Best mp3 player for a 9 year old, what do you suggest?

Answer: I purchased a Samsung YP-T7J from Amazon.com last year for Christmas for my eight year old. I liked it because it isn’t so small she would forget she had it and it was easy to navigate for a child. Actually she showed me how to use it…lol.

What’s with kids (and/or kids’ parents) and electronic gadgets these days? Is the idea of having some free fun without battery powered devices becoming obsolete or something? :)

I am not sure if it’s a good trend (technological advancement) or a bad one (technological dependence), but whatever it is, it’s certainly much different than how things were when I was a kid, and it will certainly have some impact (again, I don’t know whether positive or negative) on the growth and development of future generations.

To put things into perspective, here are a few things my friends and I did in ancient times to “have fun” - when MP3 players were unheard of and computers were rare (or too expensive for our parents). Most activities were just plain free - and those which required some hardware, didn’t cost more than a few peanuts:

stone skipping1. Skipped stones on water: Do people even remember this anymore? It involved throwing some flat-ish stones across a body of water and watching them bounce multiple times. We spent hours trying to experiment with different shapes and sizes of stones, and various throwing actions, to generate the maximum number of bounces.

By the way, according to a MSNBC report, the world record for this activity is held by Russell Byars who made a stone bounce 51 times!

stamps consumerism2. Collected stamps, coins, comics, and all sorts of silly *collectible* stuff: Nothing I collected ever turned into anything valuable, but it sure kept me busy. Plus, except for a few bucks of initial parental contribution - and occasional raiding of my own pocket money, it didn’t cost anyone a fortune.

tire games3. *Handwheeled* bicycle tires: I don’t know how to explain this, but *handwheeled* comes closest to what we used to do. We used to find trashed/damaged bicycle tires and then run around while rolling them alongside with our hands (or sometimes with short sticks). This was usually accompanied by weird sound effects from imaginary vehicles. ;)

marbles consumerism4. Played with marbles: Again, loads of fun without the need to spend a lot of money. I remember playing with them ever since I was old enough to understand that marbles are not meant to be swallowed. Most marble games were extremely simple to play, but generally used to be very competitive.

kites consumerism5. Flew kites: Where we lived, almost every apartment/house had a flat roof open terrace. On dry, windy days, flying kites was one of the popular activities - among the young and the not-so-young. Kite fights, if you have ever heard of them, are awesome. :)

spinning top6. Played with spinning tops: I have played with all sorts of tops as a kid - my favorite ones being wooden tops which were spun with the help of a long thick string. It took quite a bit of practice to get the top spinning right. Years later, I found out that this simple toy is based on one of the most complex engineering concepts.

paper airplane7. Made paper toys: This wasn’t really origami or anything … just a few simple folds to make things fly or float, but it was a lot of fun. Apart from the fun part, constructive activities like these allow a lot of scope for creativity - without burning a hole in your pocket.

8. Played hide and seek and outdoor chasing games that didn’t require a dime of hardware: There must be like infinite chasing and hiding/seeking games in existence, but I don’t see kids playing them anymore. Perhaps they like their video/computer games better. :)

Never felt the need for electronic devices as sources of entertainment - in the form of MP3 players or video games or whatever that was available (walkman, etc.) at the time. That explains why I felt like a caveman when I heard about a nine year old kid asking for a MP3 player.

I wonder what’s going to happen a few generations down the line - when all remaining memories of these old-fashioned frugal games will be wiped out. I guess there will be some sort of a Moore’s Law effect with regards to the ever decreasing age at which children start playing with expensive electronic gadgets.

Maybe we are looking at prams with iPod connections and infant-operated GPS units for our Baby Einstiens. :)

Feel free to share any particularly interesting, essentially non-hitech and inexpensive activity you indulged in as a kid. Maybe we can build a global library of such endangered (or already extinct) activities for future reference. ;)

Image credits: discovermagazine.com, www.namibstamps.com, www.edwebproject.org, www.landofmarbles.com, www.kitelife.com, www.nwce.gov.uk, www.igniteseattle.com

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The Sunday Review #44

by golbguru on October 28, 2007

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Saving It For Later: Slow Nibbling On Chocolate

by golbguru on October 25, 2007

chocolate personalA couple of weeks ago, I discussed about my default habit of leaving the original plastic covers on consumer products … for as long as they keep sticking to the shining surfaces. Along similar lines, here is another “save it for later” habit that I have developed over the years.

I nibble on chocolates for as long as it’s humanly (and hygienically) possible. I eat a very small portion, bit-by-bit, on any given day, and then I wrap the rest of it for future bit-by-bit sessions. Generally, the habit extends to any food item that I really like - although, it’s more obvious when it comes to chocolates because they are more readily available than other tempting foods and can last for several days (probably even months). In case of rare dessert treats, especially if it’s a very nicely prepared portion of tiramisu or flan, there is a good chance that I will spend more time on dessert appreciation and consumption than on the entree - in spite of the small serving size of the dessert. :)

Again (like for the earlier “saving it for later post“), as I introspect on the possible underlying reasons, the only explanation I can come up with is the desire to make the pleasing experience last as long as possible. I don’t remember having to consciously build on this habit in the past - so probably, I must have had one of those “light bulb moments” during my childhood, when I suddenly realized that instead of wolfing down that well earned chocolate bar (which, by the way, was extremely rare in those days) in a few minutes, I might as well enjoy the goodness for the next several days! [well ... that's more like a "duh" moment].

On further introspection, I think it’s one of the most valuable self-taught lessons in my life on efficient resource management. :) Over the years, I have applied it to food, pocket money, salary, clothes, good will, accidental gifts, windfalls, campfires, etc. and I have to say that it has worked pretty well in most cases. It always feels great to save some good fortune (or valuable resources) for later use instead of blowing everything up in a matter of minutes.

Here is another example: think in terms of an awesome 4th of July fireworks celebration - how would you like it if, instead of a 40 minute dazzling display, all the firecrackers were exploded in the first minute itself? ;)

On a cautious side, there is obviously a limit to how far one stretches this habit of saving the good stuff for later. All nice things (food items or not) have a viable time frame - in the sense of a “best if used before” date. Delay the “consumption” for too long and things will start to rot. The trick is to find the right balance - and as trite as it may seem, that’s always where the buck stops … doesn’t it?

Image credit: concise.britannica.com

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The Tale Of Two ETFs

by golbguru on October 23, 2007

More than a month ago, I discussed certain features of my slow but steady investing progress, and expressed concerns over owning two different ETFs that essentially track the same markets (EEM - iShares Emerging Markets ETF and VWO - Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF).

At that time, a few readers suggested that I should choose VWO over EEM because the former offers a lower expense ratio (0.3%) than the latter (0.76%).

In the process of educating myself on this subject, I came across an interesting article comparing the two ETFs in question.

Here is an excerpt from the article on Seeking Alpha:

Another thing in the article that I thought was strange was the author’s implication the VWO is a better choice, if you have to have emerging market exposure, than EEM because the expense ratio is a lot less. For the record VWO’s expense ratio is 0.30% (according to the article) and EEM’s expense ratio is 0.76% (according to Yahoo Finance). I think of this as forest for the trees analysis. At this point I will note that VWO has an OEF equivalent (VEIEX). Since VWO’s inception in March it has lagged EEM by at least 200 basis points (I am eyeballing the chart). For one year EEM looks to have outperformed the OEF equivalent by about 300 basis points. And for two years EEM seems to be ahead by about 1000 basis points. Even if the numbers are off, EEM has clearly outperformed by more than the expense ratio at every normal time interval since its inception.

The author seems to imply that EEM is a better performing ETF in spite of it’s higher expense ratio. I am still trying to find more information on this issue before I decide to go with one or the other ETF.

Meanwhile, I tried to check up the constituents of each ETF and found this article. Looks like there are differences in the weights these ETFs assign to different markets - although they may be tracking the same markets. That’s probably one of the reasons why there is a difference in their performance.

Any insights into this?

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Sale Sale Stupid Sale

by golbguru on October 22, 2007

stupid sale forever

Very soon, I am going to add words like “sale”, “discount”, “deal”, “clearance”, etc. to the list of the most abused words in the US … right after words like “values”, “children”, and “integrity” (watch for gross misuse of the latter set of words in the upcoming political debates).

For me, the words sale or discount imply the availability of a consumer product at a price lower than it’s “regular price”. As such, it is obvious that the product should have been sold at a regular price for some amount of time, before a retailer declares a certain percentage reduction on the regular price of the product and calls it a “sale”.

For example, let us assume that a shirt (of the size I want) at a local retailer sells for $20 on most days of the year. On certain days, the retailer announces a sale, gives a 25% discount, and sells the same shirt for $15. Now this is what I call a sale.

However, I have been observing an increasing number of advertised sales that are simply useless gimmicks and just not worthy of any attention. Here are a few examples.

The Perpetual Sale

This is a kind of 24/7/365 sale - it ends on Monday night and starts again on Tuesday morning - it ends on the last day of October and starts again on the first day of November. Stuff is forever on sale. That doesn’t make any sense to me. For these perpetual sales, where is the concept of “regular price”? What is the percentage discount based on? Is it based on some arbitrary sticker price that can be easily manipulated by pasting new stickers on top of old ones? If so, then it’s stupid to call it a sale. I mean, what difference does it make to the consumers if you sell the same shirt - one day for a 50% discount and some other day for a 2% discount - if ultimately, it’s going to cost $15 to the consumer through every day of the year?

Continuing on the same note, what’s the point in selling the same shirt at a 25% discount through all days of the year? If a store needs to advertise a perpetual discount on a certain product, to me, it seems like there is a problem with the initial pricing of the product - sounds like the product is overvalued in the first place.

Another example of perpetual discount pricing is seen with pizza outlets. Every week, various pizzerias fill our mailbox with dozens of coupons announcing some new “deals”. Not surprisingly, there is nothing new with most of these coupons - every week, the same pizzas are sold for about the same price - and yet, each week it’s a “new limited time offer”.

The Urgency Sale

This follows from the “limited time offer” announcements that I mentioned above. A couple of classic examples of this type of sales are:

  • Call in the next 5 minutes and we will give you an additional 25% discount
  • This offer is valid only if you sign this agreement right now
  • Once in a lifetime opportunity!

In spite of sounding stupid, such sales tactics call upon customers’ sense of urgency and usually coax them out of their money for senseless stuff (I know someone who bought a remote controlled “fart machine” for $22 under such kind of urgent persuasion).

Many television advertisements, with fake testimonials from “happy” consumers, fall in this category. These ads will run every day of the week and ask you to call in the next 5 minutes to get some additional discount. ;)

The Useless Sale

Great! so there is a 80% discount sale in your favorite retail store. You think happy thoughts of getting all the stuff you always wanted and rise early to get to the store before all the good stuff gets scooped up. You start looking for the XL-size t-shirts that you wanted and after wasting an hour searching for them, you realize that the 80% off is only on 5XL size fluorescent yellow t-shirts with fluorescent pink sleeves! Everything else is priced higher than usual! :)

Sometimes, the product you want is available, but there is this only one singular piece that’s in stock and there are about 500 people who will be looking for it on the same day as you are. So, good luck on that.

The Mass Hysteria Sale

Shout “sale! sale! sale!” outside your car in just over a month from now, on the day after Thanksgiving, and you will know what I am talking about. In fact, you can start having fun a couple of days earlier if you hang around Best Buy or Circuit City. :)

These are just the examples off the top of my head… I am sure there are more out there.

Interestingly, since many advertisers consistently keep using such sale strategies, something must be obviously working for them. I wonder if we are getting the meanings of words like “sale”, “discount”, etc. incorrectly hardwired in our genes or something.

sale sale sale!

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The Sunday Review #43

by golbguru on October 21, 2007

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What A Financially Painful Childhood Can Teach You about Money

by golbguru on October 19, 2007

This is a guest post by Dough Roller - a happily married, father of two, on a path to achieving financial independence. Want to know how people fight their way out of $55,000 in debt? … head over to his inspiring blog to read all about it.

Earlier this month, this blog published a reader comment that sparked some controversy - it seemed to imply that most personal finance bloggers were rich and didn’t have any major financial obstacles in their life. [Editor's note: the comment author wanted me to remove the quoted part of the comment - so that's gone now.]

I read this and thought the reader was describing me. My wife and I have gone from a negative net worth 15 years ago to substantial savings today. Although none of what we have was inherited or handed to us, a high salary has allowed us to max out our 401(k) and save a little extra. Add in real estate appreciation and no major financial setbacks, and you have two “middle-class millionaires.”

But if life were only that simple. While many experience financial hardship as adults, I traveled through the winter of my financial discontent as a child. It was painful, but it taught me a lot about money, business and people, and shaped my attitudes about personal finance. Here’s what happened and what I learned from the experience.

Money is a Terrible Thing to Waste

My parents divorced and both remarried before I can remember. I lived with my mom and stepfather, visiting my dad and stepmother on the weekends. When I was about 10, my stepfather opened a store that sold fishing and hunting gear. Was the store near where people fish or hunt? Nope—it was smack dap in the middle of the city and 40 minutes from our home. Go figure. Because my stepfather had to keep his day job to make ends meet, I ran the store by myself during the summers. I was about 13. To make a long story short, the business was a financial disaster.

As the bills mounted, my parents paid them with a second mortgage on our home. (Do you see where this is going?) I can remember our family literally having no money. My stepfather got paid once a month, and on payday (the happiest day of the month) my mom and I would put two or three dollars of gas in the car. Then we would head over to the grocery store to buy food because by the end of the month there was virtually no food in the house.

As finances worsened, my parents told me that they would be filing for bankruptcy and that we would need to move out of the house. The stress on our family was immeasurable. The bitter irony of the situation is that what ultimately saved us was a tragic loss. My father (not my stepfather) died in a car accident.

His death resulted in my receiving social security benefits until I graduated from high school. Those benefits went to pay my stepfather’s bills from his failing business. Was this fair? Maybe not, but it kept my parents from bankruptcy and from losing our home. Money was still extremely scarce and my stepfather continued making bad financial decisions–like the time he cancelled the car insurance to save a few bucks just weeks before a massive hail storm. There is nothing like driving a car around that resembles a golf ball with 120,000 miles on it, but at least we had a car.

Childhood Lessons about Money and Life

Here is what these childhood experiences taught me about money and life:

  • Living paycheck to paycheck is miserable. Saving money isn’t easy, and some situations may make it impossible. My childhood experiences motivated me to do everything I possibly could to save money.
  • Turning a hobby into a business can be a really bad idea. There is something to be said about doing what you love. But running a successful business requires a lot more than just passion.
  • My choices about money affect those I love. We don’t live in a vacuum. Our choices about how we make, spend, save and give money can have a major impact on our families.
  • Life can really suck sometimes. As my mom would tell me, life isn’t fair. Indeed, we all have our joys and our tragedies. I was blessed by having a loving mom, yet experienced the tragedy of having a Dad leave so soon.
  • We are the sum of our circumstances multiplied by our choices. Each of our circumstances differs but they almost always involve struggles. From those struggles, we can learn and we can choose. Indeed, the financial hardships I experienced as a child have resulted, I believe, in the financial freedoms I enjoy today.

I have tried to draw on the difficulties in my life to make good choices, such as in my education and in financial planning in my adult life. When I write, I try to share what I learned (and continue learning) in the hopes of benefiting a reader facing their own challenges, financial or otherwise. For example, I recently shared My Best and Worst Financial Decisions.

So now it’s your turn. How did your childhood experiences shape your attitudes about money?

Here is a link to The Dough Roller’s feed if you would like to add his blog to your daily reading list.

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Money Links For 10-19-2007

by golbguru on October 19, 2007

Here are some interesting money articles published over the week.

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I Am Glad Oil Prices Are Rising

by golbguru on October 17, 2007

oil pricesI know this is selfish and evil, but I need to get this out of my system.

Of course, the rising oil prices cause sharp momentary pain at the gas pump and gradually increasing pain at retail stores; but, there is a silver lining to this dark cloud that I am discovering about now.

If you head over to a campus recruiting department at any college around this time of the year, you will know what I am talking about. Companies are picking up students like hot cakes - full time, part time, interns, and co-ops.

It’s difficult to trace the exact routes of all the excessive oil profits, but I guess you can observe some end effects when it comes to recruitment stats. Big companies, small companies, service companies, manufacturing companies, software companies, and many other companies … the money eventually trickles down to all of them and then they all try to get a piece of the action.

The rising demand for oil (one of the reasons why oil prices are hovering high up) and record oil profits in recent times have spurred a major chunk of the industry into a frenzy of new projects, all over the world, worth many billions of dollars. And now, they are needing thousands of people to work on these projects - in US and abroad.

I cannot say whether this is just a short term boom or a fairly sustainable trend, but unless all the developing countries (currently developing … and those which will be on rapid development paths in future) suddenly stop using oil or unless they figure out a way of using sea water as fuel, I would stay bullish on the prospects of this trend sustaining itself for several years down the line.

Right now, “strike while the iron is hot” seems to be my favorite phrase. It appears like a good time to head out there and grab a piece of the recruitment pie. :)

Ironically, a couple of days ago, I wrote something about oil consumption and environmental concerns. Oh, well … three cheers for hypocrisy .. hyp hyp hypocrisy!

Image credit: edweb.sdsu.edu

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