First, some general thoughts about buying airline tickets. It’s like buying company shares in the stock market. The first time you see a fare, it raises some “stock market-like”questions; for example: is it going to rise or fall in time to come? should I wait for a better time or buy immediately? what will happen if the price falls suddenly after I make the purchase? and other similar questions. So, to make a long story short, buying “good deal” airline tickets has the same kind of anxiety attached to it as buying a “good” stock.
A few days ago, I booked two tickets to Philadelphia as a part of our short vacation plans over the Memorial Day weekend. To avoid spending a ton of money on airline tickets later, I decided to book them right away (for once, didn’t really procrastinate). Searched on major websites: Expedia, Orbitz, Farecast, etc., and as usual….found cheaper deals on airline websites directly. Both Continental and Southwest were offering low fares, but went ahead with Southwest (flight schedule suited us better) and finalized the purchase. Here is a summary.
Today, I was just tinkering around travel websites, trying to check the ticket prices again (I am into this habit of checking prices of things *after* I have already purchased them…may be to reassure myself that I was not ripped off…or something like that), and found out that the fares had dropped significantly over the weekend! It felt like all those times when I bought something on “sale” just to find out that the “regular” price dropped below the “sale” price on the next day (which happens almost every time).
Fortunately, thanks to Southwest, it took me less than 2 minutes, about 8~10 clicks, and no human intervention to avail the new reduced fares (all you need to do is “change” your current itinerary…and book the same flights again and new fares are applied like magic).
That saved us $100 in all. The new prices are pretty cool considering it takes more than 3.5 hours to fly nonstop from where we live to Philadelphia (and for some weird reason this price is even less than the current “sale” prices advertised on Southwest). It’s a pity they don’t refund the amount to your credit card…but the credit for future travel is good enough for us. Will apply that towards a Las Vegas trip later in the year.
Experience with Farecast.com
The first time I booked tickets on Southwest, I sort of relied on Farecast.com’s price “forecast”. At that time, it was telling me that fares will hold constant over the next 7 days. However, that forecast didn’t really come true…fares dropped within 4 days. So personally, as a forecasting tool, it wasn’t of much help to me.
However, although Farecast did not correctly predict the fall, it did follow the rise and fall in airline fares faithfully (may be it adjusted the graph *after* the prices changed…who knows). It’s prediction capability was pretty much useless, but the graph showing the price history was handy. It showed me that ticket prices are at rock bottom at about $160 and average price is around $220. So, the moment I saw something selling at $167, I knew it had to be a good deal.
I wanted to mention this to make a point that don’t rely too much on price forecast. Remember it’s like the stock market….the best predictions can go way off target. By the way, I am curious to know what kind of algorithm Farecast uses. Please enlighten me if you know more about this.
Some quick lessons
- Expedia, Orbitz, or other travel portals may not be the cheapest options (at times)…sometimes it’s cheaper to book tickets directly on airline websites.
- Don’t rely too much on price comparison and/or price forecast websites. I have found that, many times, there is a disconnect between the prices on these websites and the prices offered on airline websites. It pays to do your own homework in this matter.
- Your work is not done once you buy your tickets (especially if you booked very early and suspect that you have paid more than the average price). Look out for dropping fares.
- Click here for a comparison of price refund policies for different airlines. Southwest and JetBlue are the best ones out there.
- If the price of your stock falls, no one gives you a refund. So I guess things are not as bad with the airline ticket booking.
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Be very glad that you bought your tickets from Southwest. Southwest and JetBlue are the only two companies I know that will adjust your fare down if the fare drops. Most other airlines charge you $100 per ticket “change fee” which completely negates the fare difference.
Do not hold me to this but I heard, it’s best to pay for a ticket about 2:00 am on Tuesdays. Not sure why
Southwest always have good deals. I book a flight to LAX for 99 dollars each way. About 2 weeks ago they had a special and I took advantage of it.
The bad part Southwest does not fly to ATL. I have to drive to Birmingham, AL which is about 2 1/2 hrs drive. But for the price, I do not mind the drive
I have heard that you can buy a short term low price warranty with farecast. Never tried it myself though.
Another thing, some airlines don’t sell tickets via booking agencies like Orbitz. I believe Southwest is one of them.
I have done an extensive research on where to buy cheap air-tickets in the past, you may want to take a look at it here:
http://probargainhunter.com/2007/01/08/how-to-buy-cheap-airline-tickets/
Thanks for the head’s up. My wife and I are planning a trip to Europe in Sept. and still need to get our tickets.
The refund policies link is a great source
Some other sites I like to check out are Kayak.com and Farecompare.com. They also have fare history graphs, etc.
I agree, the refund policies link is great. Thanks!
TFB: Yeah..it was pure luck with Southwest. I found the article about refund policies *after* I booked the tickets.
Moneymonk: Dude…I stayed awake to test it out. 2:00 am Tuesday… let’s just say that it only made me more sleepy, no change in fare.
Yan: Thanks for the link. It’s valuable information.
Patrick and Justin: Thanks.
Good show man. Nice article
From my experience, booking early doesn’t always help. In 2005, I had booked tickets to LAX from SEA through priceline just for $175. And this was just two weeks before travel. Last year when I booked for RDU from SEA, even when I booked a month in advance, it cost me $414, which is above average for the route. Unfortunately, United did not change my itinerary even when I found a fare for $360 on Expedia a few days ahead of the journey. Finally I dropped pursuing them and concentrated on other priority things
I got this advice from my friend - instead of looking around for the cheapest prices, stick to a airline or a group of airline (which have same rewards/miles program), even if you have to pay few dollars extra. Apply for a ff card with one of them and keep on building a good history. He himself has done this with Northwest for about 4 years now and has enjoyed a free one-way ticket to India and a round-trip ticket to Hawaii
Although sites like Expedia and Orbitz do often have lower prices, the airlines often have more lax refund policies. I was recently burned by Expedia (and after the fact, I have read about many other people online who were also burned). Their cancellation policy is pretty terrible. Thanks for including the airline refund policy link - very helpful.
great post! also, next time you can try http://www.mobissimo.com
they show airline prices, plus cheap fare sites. i do the same thing as you checking flight prices after.
in the case when one of my continental flights fare dropped a $100, they send me a $100 voucher.
I’m a big fan of “Ding!” for Southwest when it’s available. Purchased a round trip from Norfolk (an out of the way airport wow) to another out of the way airport for $220 with all the fees and taxes. It’s rare to get anything from here to there for under $300 per person BEFORE taxes and fees, so this was quite pleasing to me.
You may already know this trick, but if you have to book a car rental, make sure you continue to check prices after you make a reservation. Prices on cars go up and down radically. Reservations don’t cost anything (you’re not obligated) and it’s possible to save money this way. For example, I just saved $50 doing this.
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